I wonder how long it will take for Ukraine to fold once America cuts the charity. I don't think enough people in Europe care adequately to float the bill, even if they probably should.
2025-01-20T01:33:23Z (Diaries)
By @PatrickoftheG@mastodon.social at Mon January 20, 2025 at 01:33:23AM GMT
@PatrickoftheG I don't see this happening.
Ukraine has most everything they need to defend themselves with domestically produced weapons, while Russia has nearly run out of a TON of key things, militarily, with a lot of shortages.
@PatrickoftheG
If Europeans think Russian imperialism will stop with Ukraine, I’ve got a bridge in Arizona to sell them.
@paninid Whatever ambitions Russia has, realistically, this isn't the old days where thousands of T-Series main battle tanks will be pouring into across the Fulda Gap if things go wrong.
I am not saying they are not a threat to their neighbours, especially the weak ones. I just don't think Putin is as existential threat to anyone but himself, long-term.
I just don't think Europe will pay to do the right thing for somewhere that doesn't really count directly for them.
@paninid Whatever ambitions Russia has, realistically, this isn't the old days where thousands of T-Series main battle tanks will be pouring into the Fulda Gap if things go wrong.
I am not saying they are not a threat to their neighbours, especially the weak ones. I just don't think Putin is as existential threat to anyone but himself, long-term.
I just don't think Europe will pay to do the right thing for somewhere that doesn't really count directly for them.
@PatrickoftheG
If Europe thinks that the fall of the breadbasket for the developing world won’t have any impact on them, they have another think coming.
@paninid They'll just buy the bread from the Russians instead of Ukrainians, and it will cost them a little more. They were happily buying fuel a little while ago too, Europe is happily immoral like that.
@PatrickoftheG @paninid Most of the stock of T-series tanks are bulks rusting in the fields of Ukraine waiting to be recycled.
@Lightfighter @paninid That's my point in a big way.
Now imagine if it were a real coalition of allied nations, and actually funded because they were intended to win instead of being used as ablative human shields in the name of arms deals.
@PatrickoftheG @Lightfighter
“Wars” and other armed conflicts have been arms deals for at least 150 years or so, right?
Since the Industrial Revolution? Before then, the production wasn’t at scale.
The last trench warfare was in and around Verdun.
@paninid @Lightfighter That's true, no doubt about it; it's just that for all their pluck, nobody cares about Ukraine other than a few arms deals. They could easily be supplied enough to put Russia out of commission, sort of. Nobody cares to.
Hence Russia is not so big a threat, except to people the West doesn't care about so much.
@PatrickoftheG @paninid Other than their nukes(which may or may not be in functional condition) it wouldn't take the full force of NATO more than 30 days to eliminate Russias military.
@PatrickoftheG Oh, I’m thinking Taiwan is getting conquered in four years.
@jonathankoren Eh, if mainland China can get enough support going on the island to convince them to join maybe. Or economic pressure.
As long as Taiwan has weaponry that can hit any of China's fancy dams, China is not going to do anything at all.
@PatrickoftheG it doesn’t have the weaponry. That’s the thing. It’s an island. You can just blockade it.
All this is on top of them actively building invasion barges. There is no legitimate civilian purpose for things like this at this scale.
https://www.twz.com/sea/chinese-barge-usable-for-potential-taiwan-beach-landings-seen-in-action-in-new-image
@jonathankoren It doesn't need the weaponry to win the war, it just needs enough weaponry to make sure China loses more than it gains.
Same principle as all the antiquated long range artillery in North Korea. Even if you lose it all, a barrage on Seoul has made it worthless to conquer the North.
@PatrickoftheG I know. Porcupine and what not, but the balance of power has steadily shifted and the implicit security guarantee of the United States is pretty much worthless these days.
The invasion of Ukraine has revealed just how timid Europe and the United States is.
The world is becoming a much darker place than it's been our lifetimes.
@jonathankoren Exactly that my friend.
@PatrickoftheG I hope for the best, but I am fearful for them.